Conflict in Gaza puts Egypt in a Corner

Olivia Ward
FOREIGN AFFAIRS REPORTER

The crude, nail-packed bomb that was tossed into Cairo's historic Hussein Square last weekend, killing one person and injuring 21 others, was relatively small.

But it follows more than a decade of attacks that have devastated Egypt's vital tourist industry and shaken people's faith in their security.

From 1997, more than 200 people have died and dozens more been maimed by blasts, most targeted at popular tourist destinations.

Egyptian experts have been quick to conclude the latest bombing was not connected with previous attacks, or the product of an international terrorist plot.

They say it was an unsophisticated "freelance operation" that could have been carried out by isolated Islamist sympathizers.

But the violence comes at a time when Egypt is under pressure domestically and externally – a consequence of Israel's war against Hamas in neighbouring Gaza, when Egypt failed to come to the aid of the Palestinians.

"Gaza has increased the pressure from all sides," says Hany Besada, a senior researcher at the Centre for International Governance Innovation, a think tank based in Waterloo, Ont. "The people on the street, conservative governments, Israel. Egypt is caught in the middle."

Some Arab countries, as well as Iran, which funds the militant groups Hezbollah and Hamas, urge a break in the peace treaty with Israel, which Egypt signed in 1979.

But Egypt's dependence on foreign aid – much of it from Washington – makes it unlikely it would rescind the deal.

The Gaza conflict revived hostility between Iran and Egypt after a year of tentatively warming relations. It also heated up simmering anger among Egypt's 81 million people, whose freedom to protest or challenge the government at the polls is limited.

"(President Hosni) Mubarak is in full suppression mode," says Bruce Rutherford, author of Egypt After Mubarak: Liberalism, Islam, and Democracy in the Arab World. "He's closed off peaceful avenues for criticism of the regime."

Mubarak, 80, has ruled for 28 years without a serious political challenge. His most feared opponent, the Muslim Brotherhood, has been officially banned since 1954, but gained a strong foothold by successfully running independent candidates for parliament, in spite of arrests and crackdowns.

Nor have secular foes fared well. Liberal opposition leader Ayman Nour was jailed on electoral fraud charges in 2006 and released only last week.

"That was great news, but it demonstrates how tightly controlled Egypt's political system is by one party," says Heba Morayef, a Human Rights Watch researcher on Egypt, adding that arrests of activists, arbitrary detention and torture are common there.

The Muslim Brotherhood, Rutherford says, "has been very careful to distance itself from acts of violence, but the government sees it as part of a broad effort in the region to destabilize the regime."

Government repression, coupled with the Brotherhood's insistence on peaceful political struggle, has only fuelled discontent among radical Islamists who see no way of advancing their cause, says Ammar Ali Hassan, director of the Middle East Studies and Research Centre in Cairo.

"It appears that these small groups will opt for one of two courses," he warns in the Egyptian weekly Al-Ahram.

"To remain in isolated cells committed to violence but restricting their range of operations, or to sign up with Al Qaeda, if not organizationally then in terms of general outlook and strategy."

Egyptian and Western analysts have urged the Mubarak government to liberalize, and allow Islamic parties a legitimate place. U.S. pressure for reform has brought modest results.

But change is inevitable, as Mubarak will be 82 when the next presidential election is held in 2011. He is reportedly grooming his son, Gamal, to replace him.

In the meantime, Egypt faces new unrest as the economic crisis bites deeper, in spite of some successful economic reforms. Unemployment tops 10 per cent, and 20 per cent of the country lives in absolute poverty.